Friday, Mar 12th 2021

History rhymes


One year ago today, markets were in full-on turmoil as COVID-19 exploded across the U.S.

At the time, uncertainty was rampant in public markets, with some observers saying the disaster was just getting started, and others saying the reaction was overblown and indiscriminate.

At that time we conducted a hedge fund survey that today, almost exactly one year later, appears remarkably prescient.  

Despite the widespread panic that pervaded markets at the time, a bullish consensus emerged amongst hedge fund investors who saw through the near-term price movements and recognized that the fundamental strength of many businesses around the world was not going away.

This past week, we conducted another survey across over 60 hedge fund investors whose results painted a remarkably similar picture.

While this year's March selloff was driven by something much different from last year's, a common thread of long-term bullishness rooted in business fundamentals once again emerged in investor commentary.

As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat, but it tends to rhyme.

While only the future can tell how the next 6, 12 or 24 months play out, over the long term one thing that should continue to give investors confidence through market fluctuations is the long-term link between market value and business fundamentals.

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