This morning, Bitcoin surged past $120,000 for the first time—up over 29% year-to-date. And we don’t believe this is the end of the story. If anything, it may be the middle innings of a significant structural shift in crypto markets.
Back in 2024, we introduced Titan Crypto into our portfolio recommendations, anchored by our belief that Bitcoin was potentially evolving into what many were referring to as “digital gold” and Ethereum into a leading smart contract platform.
At the time, our expectation, based on internal projections, was that Bitcoin could potentially eclipse $200,000 in 2025. With the institutional flywheel in full motion, that thesis appears increasingly plausible.
Here’s where we are now:
What's Driving the Rally?
- Institutional demand is increasing
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing record-setting inflows—$1.18 billion in a single day on Thursday last week—with BlackRock’s IBIT attracting $83B+ to date. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin network only produces 450 new coins per day. That supply/demand imbalance may be contributing to upward pressure. - Regulation may be shifting from headwind to tailwind
This week marks “Crypto Week” in Washington, with several major bills under debate. A more favorable regulatory regime, particularly under the current administration, could provide long-term tailwinds. We believe investor sentiment is already reflecting this shift.
3. Macro tailwinds reinforce the case
As concerns mount over fiscal deficits and the US dollar’s long-term purchasing power, Bitcoin is being increasingly viewed as a macro hedge. Analysts increasingly view it not as a speculative asset, but as a structurally scarce store of value. In a world of potential monetary debasement, we believe Bitcoin may continue to increasingly be referred to as digital gold.
What Happens Next?
- Technical indicators appear to be favorable. BTC has broken through its previous resistance around $112,000 and a new local support may be forming. Although analyzing charts in these previously untested price areas is challenging, projections based on Fibonacci extensions have historically been used as a reference. Bitcoin has already reached the first target suggested by the indicator, around $120,000 (the 61.8% extension level). The next targets are $136,000 (100%) and, ultimately, nearly $160,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension).
- ETF demand now reportedly exceeds daily Bitcoin issuance, potentially creating a structural imbalance that could push prices meaningfully higher.
- Pullbacks are possible. A break below $100,000 and the 200-day exponential moving average (currently positioned around $97,000) could signal a potential trend reversal, but structurally, the setup remains bullish.
This moment resembles prior crypto inflections: historically, some investors who waited for perfect clarity often missed much of the upside.
A Quick Recap of Our Crypto Thesis
When we first introduced Titan Crypto, we outlined a long-term, research-driven thesis:
- Crypto is increasingly being adopted by institutional players: ETFs, pensions, sovereign funds are all allocating capital to digital assets. Adoption appears to be no longer exclusive to a handful of fringe actors.
- In our view: Bitcoin may continue to be referred to as digital gold and Ethereum as financial infrastructure. Our equal-weighted exposure reflects this dual-pronged view.
- Small allocations could go a long way: Historically, even modest crypto allocations have improved traditional portfolio efficiency, as measured by risk-adjusted returns.
We’re not auto-adding crypto to your portfolio. Instead, we’d love to chat 1-on-1 to help determine whether an allocation (typically 1–5%) makes sense for you.
We believe this rally is real, but so is the volatility.
