Trimming gold and software in Opportunities

Although we are taking some chips off the table, our conviction in the underlying thesis remains strong. We believe the long-term setup for gold continues to be underpinned by what we call the “three Cs”: Cuts, Conflict, and Correction.  Rate cuts are on the horizon, and easing monetary policy has historically been a major catalyst for gold and gold equities. Geopolitical instability and weaponization of the U.S. dollar continues as global central banks (some of the biggest balance sheets in the world) are flocking to gold as a safe haven asset. And finally, if we see persistent inflation as a result of tariffs or continued geopolitical instability, gold can serve as a valuable hedge against systemic shocks. While we’ve dialed back our position sizes for risk management purposes, we continue to view gold as a high-conviction holding with strong risk/reward asymmetry: heads we win meaningfully, tails we don’t lose much. In the software sector, execution has been a recent pain point for Elastic (ESTC). Our channel checks have been underwhelming, leading us to believe that the distribution of outcomes heading into quarterly earnings has shifted to the downside. We elected to dial back ESTC to a smaller position size with plans to reallocate some of the proceeds to our pipeline of ideas that we believe offer more attractive risk/reward prospects. As always, don’t hesitate to reach out to us directly. We’re more than happy to assist.

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