Some investors want stocks that tend to remain stable and reliable even in an economic downturn. But others want the chance for big returns, and they’re willing to risk losses for that opportunity. That’s the difference between what are known as cyclical and non-cyclical stocks.
What are cyclical stocks?
Cyclical stocks are shares of companies whose performance tends to follow the ups and downs of the economy: They typically rise when the economy is expanding, with high employment rates and consumer spending, and they tend to fall in times of recession or contraction.
Cyclical stocks vs. non-cyclical stocks
Cyclical stocks are tied to economic performance because they’re generally shares of companies that sell goods or services that are discretionary, such as travel, entertainment, and restaurants. Because these cyclical sectors aren’t usually providing necessities, consumers are more apt to spend on these when economic times are good and pull back when things are tight. Examples of cyclical stocks include Starbucks, Delta Air Lines, Disney, and Apple.
Non-cyclical stocks are the opposite: They’re also called defensive stocks because consumers continue to spend on these categories even during economic downturns. Many non-cyclical stocks are tied to goods and services such as health care, water, gas, and groceries.
No stock is recession-proof, but the difference is these companies aren’t as affected by economic swings as cyclical stocks. Though they generally may not have as much potential upside, these non-cyclicals are generally considered to be a safer place for investors to plunk down cash and ride out a downturn. These defensive stocks include General Electric, Costco, Johnson & Johnson, and NextEra Energy.
Receive daily business and financial news
Which industries have cyclical stocks?
Several industries should be on a list of cyclical stocks. Here are a few of the most notable:
- Discretionary retail. These are the purchases that consumers could choose to hold off buying when they’re belt-tightening. Discretionary retail items include jewelry, makeup, and high-end clothing.
- Travel. Both leisure and business travel flourish in flush times and are scaled back in downturns. This category includes airlines, hotels, and booking/travel agencies.
- Restaurants. This sector tends to hurt in an economic downturn, as eating out can get pricey and more consumers opt to cook at home when money is tight.
- Consumer technology. Modern life is increasingly online, both at work and at home. But in a recession, people and businesses may hang onto existing devices rather than upgrade to the latest and greatest. Most, though not all, tech stocks are cyclical.
- Cars. Cars are much like consumer tech: When consumers feel comfortable spending, they have fewer qualms about buying or leasing a new (or new-to-you) car. In a downturn, they’re likely to stick with what’s already in the garage.
- Entertainment. This is the sector people spend on when they want to kick back and relax: concerts, streaming video services, music subscriptions, and movie tickets. They’re often some of the first items to go when people are on a budget.
- Appliances and furniture. These are durable, long-lasting goods that people don’t replace often—items such as washers, refrigerators, and furniture. Like electronic devices and cars, consumers often delay upgrading these goods in a downturn.
- Manufacturing. This sector is affected by the boom or bust in the categories above. When people are spending on physical goods, factories stay humming. When demand wanes, so does manufacturing.
- Banks. In good economic times, demand for mortgage and car loans is high. In a downturn, not only does demand fall, but more consumers are likely to have trouble paying existing loans and credit cards. Bank earnings are also sensitive to changes in interest rates, which typically fall before and during a recession, cutting into lenders’ profit margins.
Identifying cyclical stocks
The standard method to identify a cyclical stock is to examine the so-called beta value, also called the beta coefficient. This number tells investors how sensitive a specific stock is to movements in the broader market; it’s calculated by comparing the stock’s returns relative to the market as a whole.
A beta value of one indicates a stock that moves in lockstep with the market, while a value higher than one denotes that the stock is more volatile, and a figure below one means shares move less than the broader market. So, most cyclical stocks have a beta value higher than one.
Investors can also look at trends in a stock’s earnings per share (EPS). The EPS of cyclical stocks tend to fluctuate, rising and falling with the overall economic sentiment.
A third figure relevant to value cyclical stocks is the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which measures a stock’s price in relation to its (EPS). Cyclical stocks usually have P/E ratios that are lower, so they tend to be cheaper when compared to most non-cyclicals.
If you’re ready to start growing your capital, Titan is ready for you. Our team of exceptional investment analysts manage hundreds of millions of dollars, investing our clients in actively-managed, long-term strategies with an eye on massive growth potential. Through our award-winning app, you’ll ride shotgun with some of the smartest investment minds in the business. Sign-up takes minutes: get started today.
Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Titan has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. In addition, this content may include third-party advertisements; Titan has not reviewed such advertisements and does not endorse any advertising content contained therein.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should consult your own advisers as to those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors, and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any strategy managed by Titan. Any investments referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in strategies managed by Titan, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results.
Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see Titan’s Legal Page for additional important information.