Three Things (12/18)

Masa Son doubles down

Bold backing … SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son has pledged $100 billion to U.S. projects, focusing on AI, energy, and tech infrastructure. Announced alongside President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the commitment mirrors Son’s 2016 promise of $50 billion, which drew attention for its scale and ambition.

SoftBank, one of the world’s most influential tech investors, is known for bold, high-risk bets. Son’s Vision Fund, launched in 2017 with $100 billion, backed companies like Uber (UBER) and Arm Holdings (ARM). While high-profile flops like WeWork (delisted from the NYSE in 2023) left scars, recent wins like Arm’s standout IPO have restored some optimism.

Son made no similar pledges during the Biden presidency, focusing instead on managing SoftBank’s Vision Fund struggles at the time. This latest move highlights Son’s tendency to align major investments with political transitions in the U.S.

The $100 billion will target infrastructure to support AI, including data centers, energy solutions, and chip manufacturing. SoftBank’s cash alone can’t cover the amount, so Son will likely seek outside investors or raise new debt, per WSJ reporting.

Son, a UC Berkeley graduate with deep ties to the U.S., calls himself an “architect of the future,” betting heavily on AI. While experts applaud his ambition, they question whether such pledges translate into real job creation.

Retail sales top forecasts

Consumer comeback … US retail sales grew 0.7% in November, beating Wall Street’s forecast of 0.6%. The results signal a resilient consumer and a promising start to the critical holiday shopping season.

One standout category was auto sales. Purchases of vehicles and parts surged 2.4% month-over-month, the strongest showing in over three years as interest rates dipped and dealerships offered deep year-end discounts. Online shopping also jumped, climbing 1.8%, driven by Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions on platforms like Amazon and TikTok Shop.

While overall sales beat expectations, growth elsewhere showed mixed results. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose just 0.2%, missing analyst estimates of 0.4%. The “control group”—which strips out volatile sectors and feeds GDP data—met expectations with a 0.4% gain.

Economists agree the results highlight consumer resilience but flag potential headwinds for 2025. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Wells Fargo’s Tim Quinlan noted concerns over rising tariffs and slowing income growth, which could weaken spending next year.

Despite challenges, early holiday spending is strong. Retailers saw robust traffic across digital and physical stores, with consumer confidence buoyed by a favorable economic outlook.

The results also add context for the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to cut interest rates soon. Investors will watch closely as Fed Chair Jerome Powell shares updated economic projections following the FOMC meeting later today.

Forecasting the future

Trend tracking … 2025 predictions are here. Increasingly driven by data rather than editorial opinion, these forecasts could offer clues for investors as they evaluate opportunities in the year ahead. From shifting styles to new retail approaches, the trends signal changing consumer preferences over time.

Trends continue to head West. According to FastCo Design, the American West’s influence—think bolo ties and cowboy boots—will go even more mainstream in 2025. In the entertainment world, the series finale of “Yellowstone” recently notched 11.4 million viewers, a new record for Paramount (PARA). In 2024, there was a 20% global increase in monthly streams for country genre compared to last year, per Spotify (SPOT) data.

Another standout? Purple. Shades from soft lavenders to deep violets are expected to dominate, blending seamlessly with Pantone’s Color of the Year for 2025: Mocha Mousse. The versatile brown offers warmth and sophistication, and was announced alongside collaborations with Motorola (MSI), Wix (WIX), and Post-it Notes (MMM).

Discovery engine Pinterest (PINS) made some predictions of its own based on data from its more than 500 million unique monthly visitors. In the realm of fashion, Pinterest predicts consumers will embrace maximalism and bold expression, including the “Salvador Dali aesthetic.” For the home, consumers are increasingly pinning content related to sustainable living and recycled fashion. Additionally, carbonated beverages will still be dominant, albeit with a twist. Pinterest found that users are increasingly seeking out old-school soda pop recipes.

One more thing: Pfizer (PFE) provided 2025 sales and earnings guidance that aligns with Wall Street expectations, reassuring investors and pushing shares up after recent declines. That said, some experts believe the looming confirmation of RFK Jr. as health secretary could bring uncertainty, as his history of vaccine skepticism may impact Pfizer’s relationship with regulators and its public image.

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