ResearchThree Things (11/25)

Three Things (11/25)

Nov 25, 2024

Cable shakeup, Gap gets bullish

Comcast reshapes media empire

Corporate shuffle … Comcast (CMCSA) announced plans to spin off its cable TV networks into a new company, tentatively called SpinCo. The spinoff will include MSNBC, CNBC, USA, Syfy, Oxygen, and the Golf Channel, marking a strategic pivot as Comcast doubles down on broadband and streaming services.

This shift underscores the mounting challenges for traditional cable TV, as both viewership and revenue continue to decline. For MSNBC, it presents a pivotal moment. The network, long dependent on NBC’s reporting resources while establishing its niche with opinion-driven programming, now faces a critical choice: either invest in developing its own newsroom or double down on its commentary-focused identity.

TV Use by Platform

From a financial standpoint, Comcast’s strategy could position the company to pursue mergers or acquisitions more easily, especially as the market shifts to a streaming-first focus—much like Netflix and Disney are doing. Comcast’s stock has held steady over the past three years, with broadband services and hits like Olympic coverage driving modest revenue growth. However, declining video subscribers and fierce competition in streaming have put pressure on margins. Even so, Comcast stands out with a gross profit margin of 68.14% and a return on equity of 17.18%, outperforming peers like Charter Communications (CHTR) and AT&T (T).

As SpinCo’s launch nears, analysts debate its potential. While some see it as a “well-funded startup” with room for acquisitions, others note the challenges of shedding assets tied to a shrinking cable ecosystem.

Gap is back

Retail revival … Gap Inc. (GAP) surprised Wall Street this quarter, posting earnings of $0.72 per share against $0.58 expected, with revenue climbing to $3.83 billion. Despite weather disruptions and hurricanes, the company raised its fiscal 2024 guidance, forecasting 1.5%–2% sales growth, signaling a strong holiday season ahead.

Under CEO Richard Dickson, Gap has prioritized reinvigorating its flagship brands—Old Navy, Athleta, Banana Republic, and Gap—through strategic marketing and targeted product upgrades. Dickson's turnaround strategy includes leveraging celebrity campaigns, nostalgic messaging, and operational discipline to recapture cultural relevance.

On the earnings call, Dickson highlighted Athleta’s 5% comparable sales growth, led by revamped product lines and effective TikTok-driven marketing, and Gap’s denim-forward campaigns featuring Troye Sivan, which boosted its 3% comp growth. Meanwhile, Old Navy, despite weather challenges, gained market share in activewear—a booming $70 billion category.

Gap's strategy echoes broader trends in retail. Brands like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and American Eagle (AEO) are winning back younger consumers by aligning with trends and delivering compelling customer experiences. Gap shares rose 13% post-earnings, marking a 100% increase year-over-year.

Gen Z’s Thanksgiving table crutch

Holiday helper … This Thanksgiving, family dinners might get a little less awkward, thanks to Shyla, the latest AI assistant from Soul Machines. Designed to help Gen Z navigate delicate conversations, Shyla provides personalized strategies and a safe space to rehearse talking points.

A recent survey by Soul Machines highlighted why such a tool might be invaluable. Among ~700 Gen Z respondents, 40% dread political debates, while 34% worry about toxic relatives. Interestingly, 41% would rather hand-wash every dish than face questions about their future. Despite these anxieties, Soul Machines says that 40% of Gen Z-ers are open to AI tools like Shyla for communication support, signaling growing trust in technology for emotional assistance.

Shyla’s features include two-way interaction with real-time feedback, personalized advice tailored to individual concerns, and 24/7 availability. It’s part of a broader trend where AI assists with social challenges. For example, Replika provides emotional support as an “AI friend,” and Bumble’s (BMBL) AI tools improve dating interactions.

Psychologically, AI assistants like Shyla offer users a nonjudgmental outlet, promoting confidence in tricky situations. However, experts warn against overdependence, which could stifle natural communication development.

One more thing: With consumers shifting away from fast food due to high prices, McDonald’s (MCD) is launching a new value menu to re-establish its affordability. Meanwhile, just in time for the holidays, a new coffee table book just dropped chronicling McDonald’s eccentric menu items from around the world.


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