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ResearchThree Things (10/22)

Three Things (10/22)

Oct 23, 2023

“We live in a world defined by the rapid pace of technological change." – Jerome Powell

Historic bond moves

Treasury yields rose to the highest levels since in the last 16 years, last week — with the 10-year rate nearing 5% on Thursday — after stronger-than-expected retail sales data stoked concerns that the Federal Reserve has more work to do in slowing inflation. Jerome Powell acknowledged that “inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning.”

The move higher can be attributed to a variety of factors: concerns of a higher for longer environment, an economy and labor market that hasn’t slowed, increasing government deficits, and an increase in the term premium or the extra yield investors demand as they worry about changing rates. The above considerations have ushered in a historic environment for bond markets and a trend that we don’t expect to change any time soon.

Arenas to box offices

“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” was the top performing movie in the U.S. and Canada for the second weekend, grossing an estimated $31 million and increasing domestic box office sales to $129.8 million. Martin Scorsese-directed “Killers of the Flower Moon” also had a solid weekend marking a strong October for moving going, a period that is typically quieter for theaters than the summer. 

The Taylor Economy is moving far beyond the walls of sports arenas and concert venues, as 2023 was undoubtedly a record breaking year for the superstar. You don’t have to be a Swiftie to have been touched in some way by the phenomenon: analysts estimate that the Eras Tour will likely surpass the $1 Billion mark during its international leg next March, while the tour is projected to generate close to $5 billion in consumer spending in the United States alone. 

Hollywood strike continued

The Hollywood actors union and major studios and streamers announced over the weekend that they will return to the negotiating table in an effort to end a months long strike. Talks are scheduled to restart Tuesday, nearly two weeks after the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers walked away from discussions because of a revised union demand to share in streaming revenue.

It will be interesting to see the downstream impacts of the labor strike as the 2007 strike was estimated to have cost the state of California nearly $2.1 billion. Where it might be felt most acutely could be the streaming platforms who rely on new and viral content to grow their audience. A world without new media will force companies to depend on their established libraries, a trend that could be disastrous for growing media companies. 

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